Will the Bank of Mexico cut its target rate by 0.25 percentage point in the November 5, 2026 decision?

YES 50%

NO 50%

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Current probability

Probability is discovered by the market and changes as new positions and information arrive.

50%

50.0%There is not enough probability history yet.

Fechamento das negociações

Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 PM

24h virtual volume

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Participants

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RULES & RESOLUTION

How this market will be decided

Contract · v3

Resolves YES

YES if Banxico cuts exactly 25 bps.

Resolves NO

NO if it does not cut exactly 25 bps.

PRIMARY SOURCE

Banco de México — comunicado de política monetária

Resolves YES if Banco de México announces on November 5, 2026 a reduction of exactly 25 basis points in the overnight interbank target rate; otherwise NO.

Fallback source: Banco de México — decisión de política monetaria

KEY DATES

Fechamento das negociaçõesNov 4, 2026, 11:59 PM

Expected resolutionNov 6, 2026, 2:00 AM

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Critical dates

PublishedSep 9, 2026, 3:50 AM

Trading open—

Fechamento das negociaçõesNov 4, 2026, 11:59 PM

Event end / observationNov 5, 2026, 7:00 PM

Expected resolutionNov 6, 2026, 2:00 AM

TimezoneUTC

Special conditions

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Anulação

VOID somente quando o resultado não puder ser determinado objetivamente pela regra e pelas fontes aprovadas.

Cancelamento

CANCELLED somente por decisão excepcional de governança auditada.

Interpretation clause

Preservar exatamente o critério objetivo aprovado pelo Admin.

Economic modesPRY Virtual · ACTIVE

COMMUNITY

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