Will Copom cut the Selic rate by exactly 0.25 percentage point at the November 4, 2026 meeting?

YES 50%

NO 50%

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Current probability

Probability is discovered by the market and changes as new positions and information arrive.

50%

50.0%There is not enough probability history yet.

Fechamento das negociações

Nov 4, 2026, 6:25 PM

24h virtual volume

— PRY

Participants

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RULES & RESOLUTION

How this market will be decided

Contract · v3

Resolves YES

YES for a cut of exactly 0.25 percentage point.

Resolves NO

NO for any other outcome.

PRIMARY SOURCE

Banco Central do Brasil — Comunicado do Copom

Resolves YES if Copom announces on November 4, 2026 a reduction of exactly 0.25 percentage point in the Selic target versus the immediately previous level; otherwise NO.

Fallback source: Ata do Copom

KEY DATES

Fechamento das negociaçõesNov 4, 2026, 6:25 PM

Expected resolutionNov 4, 2026, 7:00 PM

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Critical dates

PublishedSep 8, 2026, 6:51 PM

Trading open—

Fechamento das negociaçõesNov 4, 2026, 6:25 PM

Event end / observationNov 4, 2026, 6:30 PM

Expected resolutionNov 4, 2026, 7:00 PM

TimezoneAmerica/Sao_Paulo

Special conditions

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Anulação

VOID somente quando o resultado não puder ser determinado objetivamente pela regra e pelas fontes aprovadas.

Cancelamento

CANCELLED somente por decisão excepcional de governança auditada.

Interpretation clause

Preservar exatamente o critério objetivo aprovado pelo Admin.

Economic modesPRY Virtual · TRADING CLOSED

COMMUNITY

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