Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by more than 0.25 percentage point at its October 28, 2026 meeting?

YES 50%

NO 50%

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Current probability

Probability is discovered by the market and changes as new positions and information arrive.

50%

50.0%There is not enough probability history yet.

Fechamento das negociações

Oct 28, 2026, 1:55 PM

24h virtual volume

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Participants

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RULES & RESOLUTION

How this market will be decided

Contract · v4

Resolves YES

The increase will exceed 25 basis points.

Resolves NO

The target range will not rise by more than 25 basis points.

PRIMARY SOURCE

Federal Reserve — FOMC statement

Resolve YES if the federal funds target range rises by more than 25 basis points in the October 28, 2026 decision; otherwise, resolve NO.

Fallback source: Federal Reserve press conference

KEY DATES

Fechamento das negociaçõesOct 28, 2026, 1:55 PM

Expected resolutionOct 28, 2026, 3:15 PM

Open market conversation

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Critical dates

PublishedSep 9, 2026, 3:26 AM

Trading open—

Fechamento das negociaçõesOct 28, 2026, 1:55 PM

Event end / observationOct 28, 2026, 2:00 PM

Expected resolutionOct 28, 2026, 3:15 PM

TimezoneAmerica/New_York

Special conditions

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Anulação

VOID somente quando o resultado não puder ser determinado objetivamente pela regra e pelas fontes aprovadas.

Cancelamento

CANCELLED somente por decisão excepcional de governança auditada.

Interpretation clause

Preservar exatamente o critério objetivo aprovado pelo Admin.

Economic modesPRY Virtual · ACTIVE

COMMUNITY

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