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Market conversation
Política e eleiçõesBrasilRESOLVEDBINARY
MARKET IN PLAY

If Brazil’s 2026 presidential election goes to a runoff, will the margin between the two candidates be less than 3 percentage points?

YES 50%
NO 50%
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Current probability

Probability is discovered by the market and changes as new positions and information arrive.

50%
1M
50.0%There is not enough probability history yet.
Fechamento das negociações
Oct 25, 2026, 10:00 AM
24h virtual volume
— PRY
Participants
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RULES & RESOLUTION

How this market will be decided

Contract · v3
Resolves YES

YES if a presidential runoff is held on October 25, 2026 and the difference between the two candidates’ shares of valid votes is less than 3.00 percentage points.

Resolves NO

NO if a runoff is held and the difference is 3.00 percentage points or more. VOID if no runoff is held.

PRIMARY SOURCE
TSE — resultados oficiais das Eleições 2026

Resolves YES if a presidential runoff is held on October 25, 2026 and the difference between the two candidates’ shares of valid votes is less than 3.00 percentage points; resolves NO if a runoff is held and the difference is 3.00 percentage points or more; VOID if no runoff is held.

Fallback source: Agência Brasil
KEY DATES
Fechamento das negociaçõesOct 25, 2026, 10:00 AM
Expected resolutionOct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM
Open market conversation
View full rules and special conditions

Critical dates

PublishedSep 8, 2026, 3:31 AM
Trading openSep 6, 2026, 1:47 PM
Fechamento das negociaçõesOct 25, 2026, 10:00 AM
Event end / observationOct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM
Expected resolutionOct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM
TimezoneUTC

Special conditions

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Anulação

Aplicar VOID exatamente nas condições expressamente previstas na regra de resolução; fora delas, VOID somente se o resultado não puder ser determinado objetivamente.

Cancelamento

CANCELLED somente por decisão excepcional de governança auditada.

Interpretation clause

Preservar exatamente o critério objetivo aprovado pelo Admin.

Economic modesPRY Virtual · RESOLVED · NO
COMMUNITY

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YES
50%
NO
50%
PRYRESOLVED · NO
RESOLVED · NO

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Last quote before closeYES 50% · NO 50%
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